北京市对外贸易发展趋势及预测——基于灰色系统理论

对北京市对外贸易的变化规律及其发展趋势进行分析研究，利用灰色系统理论预测模型，选取2001～2012年间北京市进出口总额数据，对北京市2013～2015年的进出口规模进行了预测。预测结果表明北京市2013～2015年的进出口贸易总额仍将持续增加，对外贸易逆差也持续增加。     

Books Reviewed

Books reviewed:
Singer, S. Fred. Hot Talk Cold Science: Global Warming's Unfinished Debate
Hogg, Dominic, ed. Technological Change in Agriculture: Locking in to Genetic Uniformity
Ingersent, Ken A., and A. J. Rayner. Agricultural Policy in Western Europe and the United States
Smil, Vaclav. Feeding the World: A Challenge for the Twenty-First Century
Yang, Yongzheng and Tian, Weiming, eds. China's Agriculture at the Crossroad
Lal, Deepak. Unintended Consequences: The Impact of Factor Endowments, Culture, and Politics on Long-Run Economic Performance
Opschoor, J(Hans). B., Kenneth Button, and Peter Nijkamp, eds. Environmental Economics and Development
Hamilton, James T., and W. Kip Viscusi. Calculating Risks? The Spatial and Political Dimensions of Hazardous Waste Policy     

FORECASTING VOLATILITY WITH THE MULTIFRACTAL RANDOM WALK MODEL

We study the problem of forecasting volatility for the multifractal random walk model. In order to avoid the ill‐posed problem of estimating the correlation length T of the model, we introduce a limiting object defined in a quotient space; formally, this object is an infinite range log volatility. For this object and the nonlimiting object, we obtain precise prediction formulas and we apply them to the problem of forecasting volatility and pricing options with the MRW model in the absence of a reliable estimate of σ and T.     

家庭抚育成本与宏观就业市场对人口出生率的调节模式

人口出生率是评价人口发展速度的重要指标,文章针对十二五期间经济启暖过程中的人口出生率上扬现象,选取改革开放后的时间序列数据,构建人口出生率与家庭抚育成本之间的转移函数模型.旨在针对出生率的变革历程进行事后模拟与动态预测,对抚育成本类的影响因素加以归纳和辨识.转移函数模型结论证明:十一五期间出现的出生率短暂上扬并不能得以长期持续,家庭抚育成本的持续攀高仅会在一定程度上对社会生育意愿产生微弱的负向影响,而经济启暖带动就业市场的逐步活跃对出生率存在显著的抑制作用,使中国人口出生率再度回归80年代以来的现代人口再生产转变进程.     

低渗透油田CO_2驱注入参数优化研究

国内外研究表明CO2驱是低渗透油田开发的有效方法之一,针对低渗透油藏自然产能低、地层能量不足、地层压力下降快等引起采收率低的现状,在CO2驱油机理分析的基础上,通过数值模拟方法对CO2驱注入参数进行研究,结果表明CO2驱具有良好的开发效果,对后期的CO2驱推广应用具有指导意义。     

江苏劳动争议案件数量的灰色预测及启示

以2000～2009年江苏省劳动争议受理案件数据为依据,运用灰色系统理论,建立灰色GM(1,1)主模型和GM(1,1)残差模型,对江苏省劳动争议受理案件时间序列进行了拟合、分析与预测。通过实证分析表明,GM(1,1)残差模型的拟合程度较高,是一种有效的劳动争议数量预测算法,模型预测结果可为劳动关系管理和劳动争议处理提供有利的理论依据。     

唐山市降水变化特征及趋势预测

根据77处雨量站1956-2000年降水量同步系列资料，对唐山市降水变化的周期性、阶段性、不稳定性、降水倾向等特征进行分析，并利用灰色预测模型，预测了降水变化趋势。     

Cross Validation Calibration Based Shrinkage – Revisited for the Construction of Prognostic Indices

The use of shrinkage methods for the construction of prognostic indices has been paid increasing attention in the literature on medical statistics in the last years. One approach for the construction of a shrinkage factor is cross validation calibration as suggested by van H ouwelingen and le C essie (1990). We investigate this approach in more detail. First we try to clarify why shrinkage factors constructed by cross validation calibration tend to be smaller than 1. Second we explain why use of this shrinkage factor can result in an improvement of the average prediction error. Third we investigate the possible gain for constellations relevant in medical research by means of a simulation study, focusing on the dilemma, that the improvement on average has to be paid by distinct deteriorations for some patients. Finally we conclude that it is necessary to rethink the choice of loss functions in constructing prognostic indices before recommendations about the use of shrinkage methods can be made.     

关于对皖籍农民工被欠薪及追讨情况的调查

清理拖欠农民工工资尚未取得较彻底和根本的实效;劳动合同签订率、讨薪有效率低和欠薪率高说明了我国社会整体法律意识水平低下;农民工对政府作为的不满,将影响和谐社会建设。健全劳动法制,强化政府部门积极作为的责任,完善讨薪的法律手段与有效途径,乃解决问题的抓根治本之策。     

Simultaneous one-sided prediction intervals for a two-parameter exponential distribution using complete or type II censored data

Summary Simultaneous prediction intervals for observations inl future samples from a two-parameter exponential distribution are considered. The prediction limits depend upon a previously available complete or type II censored sample from the same distribution. An equation is derived from which the prediction factor is determined and exact prediction limits are illustrated with a numerical example.